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A brief analysis of the reasons for the recent sharp rise in the black market

A brief analysis of the reasons for the recent sharp rise in the black market

Recently, the black market has turned from rising to falling. Especially today, the prices of raw steel and fuel represented by iron ore, coking coal and coke have soared. Among them, the price of the 2209 contract, the main force of iron ore futures, rose by 7.16% today, and the main force of coke The contract rose 7.52%, and the main coking coal contract rose 10.98%. To analyze the reasons, there are the following points:

1. On the macro level, the overseas Federal Reserve announced the results of its interest rate discussion in the early hours of this morning, and the rate of interest rate hike continued to remain at 75 basis points, which was lower than the 100 basis points expected by the market. It is expected that there will be revisions to the request, and commodity prices will rebound in sync. The supply of unfinished buildings in various places in the domestic end has been alleviated to a certain extent recently. In addition, with the gradual implementation of the policy of guaranteeing the handover of buildings, the real estate demand is expected to gradually recover, and the pessimistic expectations in the early stage have also been repaired.



2. In terms of industry, with the recent sharp drop in the spot price of coke, steel mills have once again given a profit margin of about 100 yuan from the point of view of the production profit calculated on the spot. Therefore, the market has begun to see large-scale resumption of production by steel mills. It is expected, and from the perspective of the production reduction methods of steel mills in the early stage, most of them are mainly based on maintenance and production reduction. If production starts to resume, it will be able to recover quickly to a certain extent, causing the market to start to follow the logic of steel production resumption. In addition, in terms of coal, because the current global energy problem is still tense, the global energy speculation is strong, and the demand for coal is strong. In addition, the West continues to increase sanctions on Russia, resulting in a reduction in the global natural gas supply, and the market in turn shifts demand to The coal market has led to a hot coal market. At the same time, domestic coal demand has increased due to the high temperature in most areas this year, which has led to an increase in domestic coal demand. In order to ensure the supply of thermal coal, some coal companies have reduced the production of coking coal to a certain extent. In addition, there are market rumors. , some of the inferior coking coal is used as thermal coal to ensure the supply, which in turn leads to a certain reduction in the coking coal supply side. In terms of coke, due to the continuous sharp drop in the spot stock recently, the coking plant has also continued to lose money, resulting in a reduction in coking production. In addition, the recent market rumors that the policy of phasing out 4.3-meter coke ovens has reappeared, affecting the overall coke supply expectations.

3. In terms of sentiment, due to the sharp drop in prices in the early stage and the relatively low inventory of raw materials and fuels in steel mills, and the improvement of macro expectations, the market speculation began to gradually increase, which drove the price of raw materials and fuels to skyrocket while pushing up from the cost side. steel prices.

Post time: Aug-10-2022