JINAN, 22 October 2026 — Global steel demand is forecast to rise 1.3% in 2026 to 1,772 million tonnes, according to the World Steel Association, and structural hollow sections are among the products absorbing that modest recovery. With ten weeks left in the year, the story for square tube buyers is less about volume than about price stability, specification discipline and carbon paperwork.
Square tube prices stay range-bound
Chinese pipe prices extended a flat-to-soft run into the third week of October. SteelOrbis assessed local Chinese pipe prices as stable or slightly lower in the week to 15 October, with weaker cost support removing the floor that had held quotes through September. Elsewhere, Turkish hollow section prices stabilised in early October as thin demand capped further increases. The read-across for importers is straightforward: quotations for EN 10219 and ASTM A500 square tube have stayed inside a narrow band since mid-September, giving project buyers a window to lock Q4 and Q1 volumes without chasing the market.
Specification is where tenders are won
With headline prices flat, competition has shifted to specification. Buyers sourcing square hollow section are comparing wall-thickness tolerance, corner radius, weld quality, straightness and zinc coating weight rather than price per tonne alone. Hot-dipped galvanized square tube for outdoor structures and pre-galvanized material for indoor frames are now specified separately, and mill test certificates to EN 10204 3.1 have become a standard RFQ attachment rather than a negotiation point.
Demand is spread across applications: warehouse racking, scaffolding, curtain-wall and glazing frames, greenhouse structures, solar mounting and general machinery frames all consume square tube in the 20×20 mm to 200×200 mm range, keeping order books mixed and insulating suppliers from a single end-market slowdown.
CBAM moves from reporting to cost
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive regime on 1 January 2026. EU importers now need authorised CBAM declarant status before clearance, although buyers importing under 50 tonnes of CBAM goods a year are exempt. The first declaration and certificate surrender for 2026 imports falls due on 30 September 2027, and certificates go on sale from 1 February 2027 — so embedded-emissions data collected this quarter directly sets next year’s landed cost. Square tube suppliers that issue verified emissions figures alongside the mill certificate are clearing EU orders faster than those that cannot.
What buyers are putting in RFQs
●Mixed containers combining square tube, rectangular hollow section and round pipe
●Fixed-length cutting and deburring before shipment
●Third-party inspection at the mill
●FOB versus DDP comparisons that include safeguard duties
Outlook
With the 2026 demand figure only marginally above 2025, square tube prices look set to remain range-bound into the first quarter of 2027. The variable is raw material: iron ore, scrap and freight on main routes remain the likeliest triggers for a move in either direction. Buyers who want certainty are booking tonnage early and confirming specification and carbon documentation at the quotation stage, not at shipment. As of late October, those placing first-quarter 2027 orders are asking for indicative pricing that holds through the end of November.
Post time: Oct-22-2026