JINAN, China, 13 November 2026 — Benchmark copper held close to its 2026 highs this week, keeping copper tube prices elevated as HVAC demand, refrigerant upgrades and a 50% US import tariff continue to reorganise global supply chains.
Three-month LME copper traded near 6.28 per pound — roughly 13,800 per tonne — on 11 November, about 6% below the record level set in May, according to market data. Prices have averaged well above $12,000 per tonne through 2026, and tube mills have passed that volatility straight into quotations, where copper content still accounts for 80–90% of the final cost of a seamless copper tube.
“Nobody quotes a fixed price for twelve months any more,” said a sales manager at Shandong Ruixiang Steel Group Co., Ltd., a Chinese exporter of steel and non-ferrous metal products. “Orders are priced against the LME monthly average of the shipment period plus a fabrication premium. The discussion with buyers has moved from price to how we share the risk.”
Three forces are tightening the market.
The first is supply. Mine disruptions and falling ore grades have left the refined market in deficit, with industry estimates pointing to a shortfall of more than 100,000 tonnes in 2026. Every tonne lost at the mine eventually shows up as a higher copper tube price at the fabricator’s door.
The second is the refrigerant transition. As R-410A is phased out in favour of lower-GWP alternatives such as R-32 and R-454B, system operating pressures rise, and OEMs are specifying heavier wall thicknesses and higher-grade tempers. Type K tube, historically a small segment, is now the fastest-growing category at a projected 6.7% CAGR, while inner-grooved and enhanced-surface tube is becoming standard in heat-pump condensers rather than an optional upgrade.
The third is trade policy. Since 6 April 2026, semi-finished copper products entering the United States — including copper tube and pipe — have faced a 50% Section 232 tariff on full value. The measure has effectively closed the US market to Chinese tube mills and pushed export volumes toward Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, intensifying competition and shortening lead times in those regions.
Underpinning all three is steady volume growth. The global copper pipes and tubes market is estimated at 5.22 million tonnes in 2026 and is forecast to reach 6.26 million tonnes by 2031, a CAGR of 3.72%, driven by air-conditioning production, cold-chain investment and data-centre cooling.
What it means for buyers. Procurement teams placing copper tube orders for Q1 2027 delivery should expect LME-linked pricing rather than fixed offers, and should lock the pricing formula — averaging period, premium and payment terms — before capacity is committed. Specification matters as much as price: ASTM B280, EN 1057 and JIS H3300 tube are not interchangeable across projects, and wall thickness specified for R-32 systems adds measurable tonnage to every order.
Shandong Ruixiang Steel Group Co., Ltd. supplies seamless copper tube, copper pipe and related non-ferrous products to HVAC, refrigeration and construction buyers worldwide, with mill test certificates and third-party inspection available on request.
Post time: Nov-13-2026