SHANGHAI, October 21, 2026 — China’s rebar spot prices edged higher this week, even as futures stayed pinned near two-month lows after the World Steel Association cut its 2026 demand forecast and domestic mill profitability fell to a fraction of capacity.
Mysteel assessed the national price of HRB400E 20mm rebar at RMB 3,324/t ($498/t) including 13% VAT on October 19, up RMB 5/t from October 16, with spot trading volumes rising for a second consecutive session. Rebar futures told a different story, trading around CNY 3,070/t on October 20, down roughly 1.3% over the month.
Rebar Price Benchmark: RMB 3,324/t on October 19
The divergence reflects a market caught between collapsing supply and persistently weak end-user demand. Traders in eastern China report firmer enquiries after the National Day holiday, but volumes remain well below a normal October construction season.
Supply: Hot Metal Output at a Six-Month Low
Output cuts are now the dominant price support. Average daily hot metal production fell to a six-month low of 2.34 million tonnes, and only 6.9% of Chinese steelmakers were profitable at the end of September. Crude steel output across January–September 2026 was down 2.9% year on year, with maintenance stoppages concentrated in long products.
For rebar buyers, that means fewer active mills quoting on standard HRB400E sizes, and longer lead times on large-diameter specifications.
Demand: Worldsteel Cuts Its 2026 Forecast
The World Steel Association now expects global steel demand to contract 0.1% in 2026, a sharp reversal from the 0.3% growth it projected in April, and has trimmed its 2027 growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.2%. Chinese demand is forecast to fall 2% this year as the property downturn runs longer than expected, while India remains the fastest-growing major market at 7.9% in 2026.
One offset is infrastructure: Beijing has allocated CNY 550 billion ($82 billion) of unused local government debt quotas to accelerate infrastructure spending, which could lift construction steel demand into early 2027.
Export Prices: China vs Turkey vs the United States
Chinese rebar was quoted at around $468.5/t FOT warehouse on October 9, against $605–620/t FOB for Turkish material at $1,033.4/t EXW in the United States, where Nucor and Gerdau pushed through $30/short ton increases in early October.
The gap keeps volumes flowing: China’s steel bar exports reached 1.92 million tonnes in July 2026, up over 20% year on year. China’s 2026 steel export licensing system adds a documentation step rather than a hard cap, so buyers should confirm licence coverage and HS codes early.
Rebar Price Outlook for Q4 2026
Prices are likely to stay range-bound into November, with coke costs and the depth of winter output cuts setting the floor, and slow construction demand capping the ceiling. Any pre-winter restocking in northern China would offer only modest upside.
For importers, current offers remain attractive, but verification matters more than the headline number: check GB/T 1499.2, BS 4449 or ASTM A615 certification, mill test certificates, bundle weights and length tolerances before fixing Q4 volumes.
Shandong Ruixiang Steel Group Co., Ltd. supplies HRB400E, BS4449 Gr460B and ASTM A615 Gr60 rebar in 6–40mm diameters. Contact our export team for current FOB and CFR quotations.
Post time: Oct-21-2026