JINAN, China, November 2, 2026 — China’s carbon steel coil exporters opened November holding a firm price line, with mills resisting discounts into the final quarter despite persistently thin overseas order books.
Mysteel’s latest weekly assessment put SS400 3mm commercial-grade hot rolled coil at Tianjin port at $493/t FOB on October 23, up $1/t on week and ending a four-week slide that had pulled the benchmark from $495/t at the end of September to $492/t on October 16, while offers from mainstream state-owned mills were heard at $500–505/t FOB China and private mills quoted slightly below that band.
Mills Defend Margins as the Yuan Firms
Sellers’ reluctance to cut offers has been reinforced by a stronger yuan against the US dollar, which reduces the local-currency return on dollar-denominated sales. Producers also argue that current quotations leave little margin once iron ore and coking coal costs are covered, particularly at integrated mills running blast furnace routes.
The cost-side relief that drove October’s decline — softer iron ore and coking coal prices — has largely run its course, shifting the market from price competition back to defending quoted levels.
Trader Stocks Down Three Weeks Running
Supply signals support the firm tone. Mysteel’s survey showed retail stocks of the five major carbon steel products held by Chinese traders falling for a third consecutive week over October 23–29, pointing to steady end-user offtake at home and giving mills room to hold offers into November.
Three Variables to Watch This Month
Heating-season curbs. Environmental restrictions across northern China typically tighten from mid-November, trimming blast furnace output and supporting flat product prices while raising domestic production costs.
Year-end volume targets. Some mills chase annual shipment plans in December, which could reintroduce discounting on large-tonnage orders — the main downside risk to the carbon steel coil price this quarter.
The Q1 2027 booking window. Importers scheduling first-quarter deliveries normally secure tonnage before the Spring Festival shutdown in early February, making November and December the practical window for Q1 cargoes.
Trade Policy Still Splits the Map
The EU’s CBAM definitive regime, in force since January 2026, requires European importers to report embedded emissions and surrender certificates, adding administrative cost to Chinese material. US Section 232 duties at 50% keep Chinese coil out of that market altogether, redirecting volumes toward Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, where Chinese suppliers compete with Indian, Vietnamese and Japanese hot rolled carbon steel coil.
What Buyers Should Check Before Booking
When comparing carbon steel coil specifications, confirm grade (Q235B, SS400, SPHC, St37-2), thickness (1.8–25 mm), width (600–2,000 mm), coil weight (3–25 t), surface condition (pickled and oiled or hot rolled black), edge type (mill or slit edge) and documentation (EN 10204 3.1 mill test certificate). Hot rolled flat products in coils are classified under HS code 7208.
Outlook
Through November and December, Chinese carbon steel coil prices are expected to hold in a $488–505/t FOB band. Heating-season supply curbs and low trader inventories cap the downside; soft export demand and possible year-end volume chasing cap the upside. Buyers with Q1 2027 requirements are advised to lock tonnage early rather than wait for a correction mills appear unwilling to offer.
Shandong Ruixiang Steel Group Co., Ltd. is a carbon steel coil supplier shipping HRC, CRC and pickled coil from Tianjin, Qingdao and Shanghai to buyers in more than 60 countries. For current carbon steel coil price offers and available stock, please contact our team.
Post time: Nov-02-2026